We Should Celebrate Accidents
This piece of mine was published nowhere and world is a better place for that.
We live in times when progress is often denoted in statistical terms. This is in marked contrast with earlier times when any mention of statistics was considered vulgar and hence pointedly ignored in polite society much like flatulence or star wars. However with the decline of social mores and prevalence of promiscuity statistics has found acceptance in social setting, and shockingly even in policy related discussions.
Now as it turns out that even with statistics there are various measures which can be used to track progress, change in GDP, per capita income, rise in food consumption, each measure illuminating the reality from just particular view point. The question arises, then which is the best measure of India's progress.
It is my considered opinion that one very good measure is number of vehicular accidents. Number of accidents is on rise across India. The data available shows a sharp upturn during last decade in accidents and fatalities caused by them. Now as it happens many commentators are express concern over this trend, regretting loss of the lives and the limbs and demanding policies to ensure road safety. I regret to say, however, that they have not been thinking logically and thinking it through.
For the reality is, the rise in accidents is something which we should be celebrating and not regretting, as it is the single best measure of rising prosperity level. It is not difficult to figure out the reason behind this either. It means that more and more people are now finding the means to own vehicles and to go out and crash them on their own terms.
If we think that merit of society should be decided by the level of prosperity that individuals are able to attain, and indeed it must be, then surely accidents are good news. And for this, we don't need to credit recklessness, the rise of accidents all over world is a consequence of technology and can be best understood in terms of economics.
Technology
In all hand wringing over accidents, the critics fail to realize the true significance of this phenomenon. In earlier ages (when stars wars was considered impolite) , the only modes of transport available were those which were powered by energy harnessed from oxidation of ATP, a decidedly biochemical process undergoing in human or animal cells. The output from was clearly insufficient for transportation. As a result the movement was extremely time consuming. The only exceptions to this were chariot driven by Charlton Heston which was totally cool and raids by Barbarians which was a thoroughly unpleasant business.
Things changed to some extent with invention of steam engine. The power available for movement increased almost exponentially. Ideally this should have seen much desired spike in accident figure, but unfortunately it was not to be. Owing to its sheer size, external engine could not be used for personal transport. Therefore while number of accidents did arise, it was still inappreciable. But a technological revolution was to change this sorry picture.
That revolution was invention of internal combustion engine, which considerably decreased the weight as well as eased manufacture of smaller and lighter vehicles, which fueled by oil could provide enough power to make possible faster mode of transportation even for individuals.
This breakthrough meant that for the first time in the history of mankind, the speed of commute was more than what human reflexes could handle which meant almost exponential increase in incidents. And yet this is not the whole story.
Economics
At this point you must be wondering what has invention of internal engines and motor vehicles, events which took place a long time ago, got to do with Indian progress. Here comes the economics. Anyone who has read The Undercover Economist or Freakonomics might have guessed the answer. The underlying theme of both the books is that quirky manipulation of data combined with random economic concept can make any stark raving, free association, half ass, dumb shit crazy analysis sound cool, which is basically the philosophy behind such venerable publications as livemint, and such reputable bloggers as H.E.
Keeping that in mind, the connection of accidents with India shining is obvious. Prior to liberalization of economy, an average Indian didn't have sufficient disposable income after accounting for household consumption to buy personal vehicle which was considered luxury. To further complicate the matters, restrictions on manufacture and import in form of manufacturing and import permits and licenses limited the availability of motor vehicles.
This however changed during 90's. Rise in income level coupled with easier availability of vehicles had the result of making affordable what was once luxury.
This of course meant a sudden surge in number of vehicles of road. It is therefore natural that accidents increased. There is a further aspect. Drunken driving, a subcategory has shown higher increase than general trend. This is also a good news, as this implies that consumption of alcohol, decidedly a luxury good, is also increasing thus indicating overall increase in prosperity.
Social
But this observations has implication which go beyond economic indicator. For long Indians have been accused of being risk averse, a charge validated by slow speed with which bajaj scooters plodded in days of yore carrying the burden of Indian family. However reckless driving, driving under influence and driving rage are all indicators that mindset of average is transforming from cautious to a confident.
I don't think anyone can object to rising prosperity and confidence, which will allow Indians in pursuit of happiness. The accidents are bound to continue their upwards trend for a long time. In my opinion this is something we should be celebrating.
Next: Why we should celebrate AIDS.
