Living in denial since 2004

To paraphrase Voltaire if  Chutzpah was not loaned from Yiddish, we would have to scour really hard for some word to describe this

"This is in fact an endorsement of BJP's stand that there should be two dominant parties at the national level," he said, adding, "Jan Sangh and BJP's creation was meant to break the dominance of a single dominant party in the polity of the country and the BJP has done this."

"The BJP has ushered in a two-party system in the country, breaking the dominance of the single dominant party polity. I am happy that people have endorsed our view and chosen a bipolar polity."

And there goes any hope of reflection and course correction by BJP leadership. Imagine if this is the extent of  delusion set in mind of Shri Advani, what can one hope from likes of Rajnath Singh. Expecting BJP leadership  to introspect is similar to expecting Congress to investigate Bofors. It is the coterie of sycophants,hanger ons and power peddlers which rules the roost in BJP, which is ultimately responsible for the humiliating defeat. Their only concern is self aggrandizement by continuing to peddle influence and right connections, so consumed are they by the power struggles and palace intrigues that they are simply unable to appreciate the fact that BJP faces existential threat.

They can not change the direction of the ship, at best they can rearrange the chairs at deck while the Titanic moves on collision course with the glacier.

I love you

Hey Bhagwan ! My head, it hurts.

And so I must ask the unfortunate readers to kindly fisk this execrable article kyunki logon ko yadi is ghatana ka pata chala to ve din-dukhiyon par vishvas n karenge* . How bad is it, it is so bad that I suspect it is actually Sagarika Ghose who has written it.

Is Federalism new Secularism ?

Though I don't expect much from Congress even I am surprised by the alacrity that Congress has shown in reverting to its original instinct of being the dominant animal of the pack . Although the snub delivered to Mu.Ka is being hailed by propaganda arm as an indication of intentions of Gandhi family, unencumbered by compulsion of coalition politics, for observing probity in the public offices, it is difficult to take it seriously irrespective of intentions of Rahul Gandhi, not only because of the lack of concern during previous tenure but also because of the fact that Congress governments have never been model of probity, milking lucrative portfolios for "fund contribution" as well as personal welfare. The other point of interest is of course the assumption shared by many among them Rahul Gandhi that the impressive performance of Congress in this election is permanent, now this may or may not be true, however I suspect that working under this assumption Congress will continue to give a short shrift to its allies. This behavior may see a return of anti- Congress sentiment prevalent till last decade, if that happens we can expect to see polarization in the name of federalism, which will be as genuine as polarization in the name of secularism, the only difference being it will be a cover for anti - Congress alliance instead of anti - BJP one.

You know ...

I am really beginning to suspect that Bibek Debroy is not interested in Padam Shris or Padam Bhushans.

He does a nice job of pouring cold water on the heightened if unfounded expectations of various segments both market as well as middle class, about enactment of serious reforms.

To repeat what I have said earlier, the actions of Congress can be best understood and also predicted by motivation of Gandhi dynasty which is perpetuation of its entrenchment, and its understanding that this is best achieved by emulating Indira Gandhi which is by enacting tax and spend schemes which in essence are "robbing Peter to pay Paul" politics. This is the whole extent of the focus on social sector and in absence of any reform or accountability the results are going to be no different from those of previous schemes.

On Taxation

Few questions:

1. Why shouldn't we move from Income tax to some sort of consumption tax ? As the things stand today Income tax bring a minuscule amount of revenue, owing to exemption to majority of population from paying tax, usually due to pressure from interests group. The advantage of consumption tax, in my view, is that it ameliorates, if not outright eliminates, to a great extent the ability of formation of interest group to pressure for exemption, mostly due to the fact that any exemption requires relatively more rigorous explanation.

2. One of the major reasons given by fiscal conservatives in US to oppose tax hikes on corporations is that the corporations can and will simply pass the hikes to the consumers. Now I can't find any fault with the logic, but shouldn't the same logic hold for the hikes in income taxes also ?

Discuss

Contrary to our belief, we niramishvaadis are relatively more immoral or perhaps even more cruel than samishvaadis (This topic inspired by first half of this post by Frogji)

Yay !

Warning spoilers, but both me and her highness are happy .

This is better than Chuck Norris facts

Market For Saas-Bahu Saga

The reason electorate chose Congress can be better understood if we understand the reason behind suffocating presence of Saas Bahu serials. PLEASE SOMEBODY DROP A NUKE ON EKTA KAPOOR.

Ahem, after this little outburst, I come to the main point, which is this question, what will it take to build a decent readership for this blog ?

Reality Check Now !

It is almost a combination of hindsight as well as combination storm in media. Anyway to shield yourself from the flying debris of punditry, you need not go any farther than reading Bibek Debroy , Swaminathan Aiyar and Shishir Gupta. Gist of the articles is, as far as success of Congress is concerned we don't know whether NREGA or loan waiver clicked with the voters, or whether Manmohan Singh unencumbered with left will unleash the awesome series of reforms, regarding BJP, Shishir Gupta raises a basic though neglected point  that BJP was undone by chronic infighting.

What irks me with this kind of instant wisdom, as far as debacle of BJP is concerned, is that it stops any serious analysis, therefore before accepting any such wild speculation as a fact, one must look at the bigger picture and use whatever data he or she possesses.

Now I am not the best person to write about the causes of debacle and the way forward but still I will give it a shot. My arguments will be wishing for plague on both those who support discarding cultural nationalism and those who think problem with BJP was it wasn't right enough.

Bearing NaMo

I am puzzled by what Rohit means to say in his comment in which he links to statement by Shivraj Singh Chauhan that hanging of Afzal Guru was not an election issue and implicitly concludes Narendra Modi is somehow responsible for BJP defeat.

There are two problems here, first assertion that hanging of Afzal Guru was not an election issue,which is true but made trivial by the fact that, neither was economy or terrorism an election issue. When I say this, I don't mean that no one bothered to debate about the issue although it is to large extent true, but that public was unresponsive to the issues as evidenced by the fact that Congress won even though its performance on both the issues was non stellar at best. Therefore unless Rohit is willing to assert neither economy or terrorism should be raised because electorate is indifferent his implication about Afzal Guru simply doesn't make any sense.

Of course one can argue that Afzal Guru is an electoral liability and hence shouldn't have been raised, however there is no evidence it is true. Of course one can argue this issue is not fit for election, but it is different from claiming that this issue harmed the prospect of BJP.

Coming to Narendra Modi, one can make an argument that Narendra Modi is not fit to be projected as Prime Ministerial candidate or that Narendra Modi is saddled with too many controversies to prove a net liability on National stage, with which I happen to agree . However it is simply erroneous to claim Modi caused BJP's, while he was acerbic he was more projected more for development and to best of knowledge didn't cause any polarization. Which is why the statements of defeated candidates should be taken with a pinch of salt. The problem that I have with these kinds of assertions unsupported by any hard data is that this kind of personal biases projecting into reality interferes with identifying the problem and solving it.

Inaccurate conclusions (Updated)

Update: To those coming from DP, just to make it clear these are just my hunches in absence of any concrete data about voting patterns, any data naturally takes precedence over the hunches.

The unexpected and conclusive victory of Congress has forced the commentariats out of their perch of settled wisdom and explain in a sensible way. In the process many explanation are being thrown which, in my opinion are simply way off the mark.

1. Modi harmed BJP's chances: I see no evidence of this. He is not a polarizing figure to the extent he was earlier ,and he hardly indulged in the kind of rhetoric which could polarize Muslims.

2. Varun Gandhi harmed BJP's chances: It is to some extent true. Prior to media storm over his bigoted remarks BJP was more optimistic towards its prospects in UP, however the controversy triggered Muslim consolidation which saw revival of Congress in UP and atleast had some adverse reaction on BJP. However it is not clear what was the reaction outside UP to BJP.

3. Manmohan Singh helped Congress: I seriously doubt this. It is true among the middle class Manmohan Singh is perceived to be decent mostly by virtue of his non political background, however I am sure that didn't provide any positive wave for Congress, at most it could have blunted the edge off middle class antipathy against UPA misrule to some extent.

4. Indian voters rejected left front : This is nonsensical, Indian voters couldn't reject left, because they never endorsed it in the first place, what happened here was that left was defeated in Kerala which is a regular occurrence and unexpected overrunning of fortress West Bengal now this may or may not be permanent , however this has nothing to do with left's policies at center.

5. Indian voters have rejected regional parties: Again not true, any reversal to regional parties has been modest at best. Revival of Congress in UP may or may not prove permanent.

6. Mandalism is dead: Usually I am on the same page as Ashok Malik , however here I disagree. True this time caste as an issue was not an forefront this time but that is only because a. Almost all parties have internalized caste dynamics in the political equation b. For the time being the returns from caste based politics are diminished, this may change however as soon as someone think of further benefits say quota in private sector for example.

7. There was a national mood: Doubtful. As I said earlier it may be possible that NREGA and loan waivers appealed to the rural electorate, however in absence of any actual data on how NREGA affected voting behavior I seriously doubt the efficacy of cash for votes scheme. I don't think there was any positive mood for Congress, however I suspect there was a sentiment of disenchantment with BJP among the urban middle class voters. On this read what DataNazi has written

Fallout continued (silver lining edition)

I know there are slim pickings but I think there may be two small consolations. First now that Congress has absolute majority it can no longer hide behind left's veto, further since it has crushed BJP it can not cite BJP as the hindrance for good governance. Further any attempt by Congress or its propaganda machinery (basically whole of media) to blame NDA for any crisis. Second the upheaval in West Bengal, the impressive performance by TC-Congress combine is a result of collapse of the electoral coalitions that put left in power for so many years. Specifically the alliance was bolstered by large scale switching over of farmers and Muslims, leaving left only with the urban votes. Now it may happen that this shift was temporary and left may regain the lost ground, however if it proves to be more endurable then left may decide to tilt more towards urban segment which may provide BJP will little opening. However if left decides to pander to farmers and Muslims, BJP has the opportunity to corner the disgruntled urbanite votes. Depends of course on how they choose to respond to the opportunity.

Fallout

Frankly speaking I have no idea why Shri Advani will wish to retire at this juncture, I believe he must be at the helm to oversee the transition and to put his foot down on any outbreak of infighting. His leaving at this juncture will just give rise to the inevitable drama just prolonging BJP's serious malaise. Unfortunately he has not exactly shown himself to be man of steel letting his emotions prevail over good judgment

Anyway I am pessimistic about what this means for future of India. Of course, I do realize many beautiful people are eagerly claiming that with a stable government with the great economist Manmohan Singh at helm Congress can focus on reforms.

Which is of course a reason for me to suspect that such worthies have been smoking something really powerful during five years. Even conceding for the left veto, it was always clear as day that Congress never took even half hearted initiative to implement any kind of reforms.

The reason is simple, Sonia Gandhi decided that only way to secure future of dynasty is by to tread the path of her Sasu Maa,which leads to state controlling all aspects of economy and freedom, and ultimately to the ruin of country. Aiding in the agenda of dynasty self aggrandizing was the disgrace known as Manmohan Singh who put his loyalty for the family and his bureaucratic over India.

Sonia Gandhi was convinced that 2004 was a rejection of reforms initiated by P.V. Narasimha Rao that great heretic and I am sure she will be convinced that 2009 was endorsement of NREGA, pay commission and loan waiver (and possibly quota in IITs and IIMs )*, so I tentatively predict that we will see more of what are in effect cash for votes scheme.

*In the end let me hazard a guess why Congress won so convincingly. I think most probably it is do with better politics, it is possible thought NREGA and other schemes might have had some effect.

Verdict

Secularism 1, India whatever you want to believe.

Anyway it seems that the nightmare scenario for BJP has come true. I do find the verdict a bit surprising though BJP was clear underdog and no one expected stellar outcome. Gandhi dynasty has made successful transition to next generation and there is no leader in BJP to match stamina and agility of Congress led by Prince. Here is my admission, I always considered Prince to be a moron, as it happens whether by design or by happy accident Prince is going to get credit for revival of Congress's fortunes in UP.

Anyhow I think it is more or less curtains for BJP. The road to recovery for BJP is arduous not just because of the effort required but because of the unity of the purpose and willing to think none of which BJP seems capable of. Long story shot BJP is stymied on the one hand by sycophants whose only aim is to secure access to power and can not see beyond Delhi and on the other hand by RSS aparatchiks for whom politics is reduced to matter of symbolic gestures. Which is why when in crisis BJP resorts to Varun Gandhi like tactics. Expect RSS to blame defeat on BJP not being pure enough or forceful enough.

Scenarios

Here are scenarios for BJP from most favorable to least favorable.

1. Congress leads a weak and unpopular government from outside. BJP regroups under a new and nimble leadership, forms govt after 2011 mid-term elections.

2. Congress props a weak and unpopular Third Front govt from outside. BJP regroups under a new and nimble leadership, forms govt after 2011 mid-term elections. Congress withers away.

3. BJP props a weak but tolerably competent Third Front govt led by someone like Sharad Pawar from outside,  regroups under a new and nimble leadership, forms govt after 2011 mid-term elections.

4. BJP props a weak and unpopular Third Front govt from outside, gets blame for antics of Behenji and Didi,  is forced to sit in opposition after 2011 mid-term elections.

5. BJP leads a weak and unpopular govt from outside, gets blame for antics of Behenji and Didi,   sinks after 2011 mid-term elections.

6. Congress leads a stable govt and  manages to avoid unpopularity by virtue of having secular liberal establishment at its side. BJP makes selling gau mutra soda  its top priority. Dynasty rule is restored.

Hitting the mattresses*

Sort of continuing from the previous post, if BJP is serious about survival much less its consolidation, it must put in place mechanism to neutralize secular liberal media which is hostile to agenda of cultural nationalism. This mechanism will enable dissemination of information and opinions which at present are either suppressed or distorted by secular liberal media.

One way is to construct this mechanism is to establish a news channel on the lines of Fox lines, this is preferred by many BJP supporters, and I am behind this in theory. In practice however, I am not convinced it is that easy, such an effort requires financial backing and more importantly a workforce of professional journalists, now it is possible to find financial backing, however it is not clear whether there will be sufficient journalists ready to switch over to a channel which is overtly sympathetic to BJP, then there is intra-party bickering that SwapanDa alludes to in one of his posts . I am of opinion that the most feasible to achieve this goal is to recruit nationalist minded industrialist who have the financial muscle as well as some modicum of professional competency.

Meanwhile there is one other way to achieve our goal, that strategy can be summarized as, "Think local".
If is my observation that papers in Indian languages are more amenable to nationalist politics compared to more cosmopolitan ELM, assuming this is true for other parts of India, BJP must consolidate its position with the local papers, especially considering they have a wider reach compared to ELM.

This can be extended to local cable channels who provide better coverage of local issues. BJP can make inroads with this medium.

Another unexplored medium is FM, at present FM market is dominated by big players and legally barred from political content. This prohibition must go and BJP must formulate the regulations to allow local players to enter and compete the market. This is another venue where BJP can make inroads.

* Mafia slang .

I am shocked, shocked ...

to find that Jamaat - ud - Dawa has resurfaced , after all our Pakistani brethren promised us they will eliminate the terrorists and we know they always keep their promise. You know what should we do ? Why restart the peace process of course! I know what you are thinking, "no way, we are not going to be made sucker again". Which is why you troglodyte Hindu fascists are the real pain in the nether regions. Not to worry though, Inshallah, with the help from beautiful people and the American Messiah we will put Sadbhavna Express back on the track.

For the long haul

(This post is mostly a collation of comments I left on Swapan Dasgupta's blog. That's right in case you were not aware SwanpanDa has a blog where he blogs and, get this, interacts with the commentators. So, go ahead, waste your time )

Now that elections are over, and everyone is waiting for results, I can write down my thoughts. This time, I didn't really follow either campaigning or analysis of the electoral fortunes, mostly because of prospects of BJP.

Whatever the results, the possibility of  BJP forming a stable and credible government is very remote.
This is bad news, after being in wilderness for five years BJP has more or less atrophied, and there is good possibility that further distance from power as well as constant onslaught by secular media may cause it to wither to margins of Indian politics from its present preeminent status.

If BJP wishes to avoid such an outcome it is imperative that it takes stock of its situation and chalk a plan aimed towards consolidating its presently precarious position as main pole and agenda setter of Indian politics.

It can not do this if it is burdened with responsibility of running a weak government, or if it is under incessant focus of hostile secular liberal media*. It can do with a bit of benign obscurity, for that it must ensure formation of a weak non - Congress government supported from outside either by direct* support from Congress or by indirect* support from BJP.

Anyway consolidation means thinking for long term. This implies that Shri Advani must retire from active politics as should the senior leadership contenting themselves with advisory role. Second a process for succession  which will ensure that BJP leaders concentrate on fighting with opposition and not among themselves. Most important however, BJP must present itself as a serious political poverty which has the policies to ensure security and prosperity for India, and the stamina necessary to implement them.

* There is added disadvantage leading or directly propping a weak government will result in further erosion of BJP's popularity, therefore if it must support the government to keep Congress out of power it must be indirect through absentation.

Hindus in the iron mask.

Venerable fossil Khushwant Singh comments on connection between 1984 anti Sikh pogroms and 2002 post Godhra riots. Now I am not sure whether a logical connection can be drawn between the two riots.
What I do find interesting is this throwaway dissimulation, "After the burning of a bogey of the train at Godhra, we are still not certain who set the compartment on fire or the identity of the victims", now former part is familiar to us.

To this day our secular overlords still pretend that the identity of perpetrators is somewhat of a mystery, I can only assume that they think the Muslim mob was present there just to enjoy the stench of burning flesh.

However the latter part is a novelty, now we are not even sure about the victims! And all along I had the impression that the victims were mostly VHP activists who had greatly offended Muslims of Godhra by traveling to Ayudhya to demand construction of Ram Mandir which in the lexicon of secular Joan of Arc Teesta Seetalvad is a justifiable  excuse for roasting them in gasoline fire.

Lest people dismiss the curious apologia as a rambling of senile mind, they should realize the agenda which subconsciously drives the dissimulation, it is to keep reinforcing the narrative of Muslims being the designated victims and Hindus always suspect as aggressors with only secular liberal establishment shielding former from the wrath of the latter. Secular liberal establishment zealously guards this narrative and will not, indeed it can not, allow any chink however minor to appear in this. 

Of course the end result, and intended one at that, of this endless propaganda is the Hindus are hidden with an abstract mask labeled as aggressor, and it is under this shaming of anonymous notoriety denied any claim to insult to cultural dignity and as the in case of Godhra even the possibility of being a victim. This is dehumanizing Hindus.

Orwell described Totalitarianism as a boot endlessly stamping on a human face, secularism as a doctrine is just endless beating of Hindus as a punching bag.

QOTD

 150 will be a communal number and 150 and above will be a secular number ! 

Cho saar is witty, I tell you.

I am shocked, shocked ...

to find that Maoists don't take bourgeoisie democracy seriously , instead using it as a stepping stone for people's democracy. I mean who could have thunk that Maoists will do such a thing, after all they gave their word.

You know what is not shocking, well the studied silence of the cocktail swishing circuit which not so long was agog with dawn of democracy  and secularism in the erstwhile Hindu Kingdom. I realize I have said this many times but the clique of cosmopolitan flotsam is so beholden to the glory of democracy and secularism that it steadfastly refuses to acknowledge any interference of reality, and is perfectly willing to take India to slow but sure journey of civilizational death in the process.