(This post took two months to complete)
I don't have anything to say about Maharashtra elections, or the UP elections, or even Karnataka crisis. There are people far more capable than myself to comment on them. I will restrict myself to observing that Congress is now the default choice (or as we used to say TINA).
No what interests me more are the efforts by all and sundry to find villains for impending demise of BJP, and the buck almost invariably stops at Rajnath Singh. Almost everyone agrees that it is his provincialism and insecurity which has ruined the party. Now it is not my case that the Rajnath Singh doesn't deserve the criticism. However my problem with the criticism is that it falls far short of identifying BJP's malaise. For sure Rajnath Singh has proven to be a terrible party president, however as far as precedent goes he is the norm rather than the exception. With the exception of Shree Advani in 90's, past presidents have been, at best ineffectual, and at worst venal. This includes those anointed by RSS, as is the incumbent.
To understand the fall of BJP, one should realize that rise of BJP had only tangentially to do with competency of those at the helm of organization, or, contrary to what RSS and its sympathizers would like to believe, "the ideology". No, what catapulted BJP on center stage was that for some time following the end of Congress's hegemony BJP became recipient of people's aspirations. This in turn owed itself to popular discontent with the corruption and stagnation visible in society. BJP being outside the boundaries of liberal-secular establishment benefited from this. In this it was similar to previous non Congress experiments. What was different was that the challenger to Congress was not a rag tag coalition of socialist parties but a single nationalist party.
Which brings us to first point, the most crucial mistake BJP made was to believe that it had got a mandate for what passes off as "ideology" in the Sangh Parivar, while in truth it had got a political probation. Now to be fair NDA government performed well enough. However BJP leadership was unable to realize that its ascendancy was facilitated by the unprecedented support for Ayudhya movement, the norm for national politics being aggregate of local issues. This mistake resulted in BJP fighting holding the banner of "India Shining" which predictably failed to enthuse the electorate. More importantly BJP was not helped by various scandals during NDA's tenure which robbed the party of its sheen or USP. The defeat in 2004, however shocking, was nothing more than a misfired strategy, one from which it was possible to recover.
However failure of BJP to rebound and its subsequent descent to irrelevance are owing to three causes, first, already mentioned, was erosion of its credibility, and with that, the claim of being "party with difference", second, absence of any political platform meant that BJP could not act as effective opposition and cause any significant damage to UPA government. But more serious than these two is the fact that Party has for all purposes isolated itself from the public. Party has been hijacked by fixers and ideologues who have other priorities than public approval. This, in the final analysis, is the malaise which has corroded BJP from within.
If BJP has to revive it should not be looking in direction of Sangh, instead it must win back the trust of the public.