My take on confidence vote

Yeah, I know it's bit late, but who cares !
 
Shorter version: Nothing much has changed.

I will try to explain the above, but first please go through what others have written on it, here is Rohit, Sakshi, Sandeep and Yossarian.

Now this may seem counter intuitive. After all this win has been hailed as the great watershed moment in Indian politics, when the puppet of Italian lady finally became Kinng, the disconnect of our journalists from reality is so acute that they are making the utterly nonsensical suggestion of restart of economic reforms by present government.

However what is necessary to understand here is that what Congress won was battle for PR. Which is unsurprising considering how ELM is desperate to cover up for Manmohan Singh and his mistress Our Lady of 10 Janpath. And it should be clear to anyone who followed debacle of NDA in 2004, that PR superiority doesn't make for electoral victories, this is the reality of contemporary  Indian  politics.

Which is why I believe that opinion in my previous post still stands with few minor adjustments, in case Congress decides to fight on platform of reforms (India shining redux), at best it may improve upon its previous tally marginally*, at worst it will realize just like BJP, that time is not yet ripe for pro-growth as political platform. BJP remains confused with no clear direction, there is no way it can win**.

But the biggest gainer to me seems to be Behenji, contrary to what Rohit thinks. Having followed her political career since early 90's with a mix of fascination and disgust, I can say two things for sure, one that underestimate her at own peril, two she thinks long term and punches way above her weight. Which is why, what seems to Rohit a failure, to me seems to be flawless execution of her long term strategy***.

* What I mean is, it is possible that Congress may be able to attract middle class voters to its fold (though it is highly suspect), problem is it doesn't have its winning coalition, which is why any gain is bound at best to be marginal, and this is best case analysis, discounting inflation, high oil prices etc. Ultimately what works is a) Ability to cobble a winnable coalition of identities agreeing to work together and b) Ability to rouse this coalition sufficiently to vote on election day.DataNazi recently wrote a post related to this, am thinking of discussing that.

** Which doesn't mean that Congress can't lose. In fact, I think this election will be repeat of 2004, except that this time Congress will be the loser.

*** Again this is subject to Mayawati performance in Lok Sabha elections, and ability to gain acceptability among the political classes. Much hinges on UP of course, but she can help her cause by a) Undermining Congress (This by the way will help BJP), and b) Cultivating pan-Indian appeal (By appealing to Dalit pride).
Her performance will of course enhance her reputation and acceptability, she can also forge an understanding with left (I am sure that left will be happy to take offer in order to stay relevant.)