Elections

Here are my revised predictions.

BJP has no chance of coming to power. In most likely scenario, it will continue to seek promised land in wilderness. At worst there is a real chance that this election may mark unraveling of BJP phenomenon.

Congress has very remote chances of returning to power. There is no groundswell in its favor, which means that despite having English Media in its pocket, it can at best hope to retain the seats. Unlike last time however there will be no polarization on Anti-BJP lines, which could have benefited Congress as it in 2004.

Now for the important part. I believe that Mayawati is more or less guaranteed to become next PM. This is less to do with governance (although she has managed to not piss off voters), but stability of the caste coalition that she put in place. With main opposition  Samajwadi Party in disarray, I think she will manage to win 50 seats in UP*. At this point her path is more or less clear. Only obstacle that I see is Jayalalitha who is herself ambitious and kind of miffed with Mayawati, however I don't really see her really able to thwart Mayawati, unless she is ready to support Congress. Far fetched but possible. This also means that Sharad Pawar has no chance of becoming PM.

* In fact she can maximize her seats by striking alliances with Congress or BJP in her area of influence.