Inaccurate conclusions (Updated)
Update: To those coming from DP, just to make it clear these are just my hunches in absence of any concrete data about voting patterns, any data naturally takes precedence over the hunches.
The unexpected and conclusive victory of Congress has forced the commentariats out of their perch of settled wisdom and explain in a sensible way. In the process many explanation are being thrown which, in my opinion are simply way off the mark.
1. Modi harmed BJP's chances: I see no evidence of this. He is not a polarizing figure to the extent he was earlier ,and he hardly indulged in the kind of rhetoric which could polarize Muslims.
2. Varun Gandhi harmed BJP's chances: It is to some extent true. Prior to media storm over his bigoted remarks BJP was more optimistic towards its prospects in UP, however the controversy triggered Muslim consolidation which saw revival of Congress in UP and atleast had some adverse reaction on BJP. However it is not clear what was the reaction outside UP to BJP.
3. Manmohan Singh helped Congress: I seriously doubt this. It is true among the middle class Manmohan Singh is perceived to be decent mostly by virtue of his non political background, however I am sure that didn't provide any positive wave for Congress, at most it could have blunted the edge off middle class antipathy against UPA misrule to some extent.
4. Indian voters rejected left front : This is nonsensical, Indian voters couldn't reject left, because they never endorsed it in the first place, what happened here was that left was defeated in Kerala which is a regular occurrence and unexpected overrunning of fortress West Bengal now this may or may not be permanent , however this has nothing to do with left's policies at center.
5. Indian voters have rejected regional parties: Again not true, any reversal to regional parties has been modest at best. Revival of Congress in UP may or may not prove permanent.
6. Mandalism is dead: Usually I am on the same page as Ashok Malik , however here I disagree. True this time caste as an issue was not an forefront this time but that is only because a. Almost all parties have internalized caste dynamics in the political equation b. For the time being the returns from caste based politics are diminished, this may change however as soon as someone think of further benefits say quota in private sector for example.
7. There was a national mood: Doubtful. As I said earlier it may be possible that NREGA and loan waivers appealed to the rural electorate, however in absence of any actual data on how NREGA affected voting behavior I seriously doubt the efficacy of cash for votes scheme. I don't think there was any positive mood for Congress, however I suspect there was a sentiment of disenchantment with BJP among the urban middle class voters. On this read what DataNazi has written
