Lok Sabha Elections: Premature Analysis

Here is what I think.

Congress is going to lose, reasons are obvious. Anti Incumbency. Out of control inflation which by all indication is going to continue its run till next year. A opportunistic arrangement whereby a lame duck PM with no authority, and a clueless but cunning Super PM with no responsibility, shares the levers to power, which might have got approval of secular liberal establishment, has always troubled the middle class.

Now normally that should have meant advantage principal opposition party. As it turns out, that is not going to be the case. For one, in India National elections are aggregate of local sentiments, which means that BJP itself has lots of anti incumbency to deal with, in form of state governments. If this is not enough, there is no hope for BJP in UP. Also, the way in which BJP has conducted itself, with a directionless behaviour guided more by knee jerk reflex instead of attempting to formulate a coherent response to changed conditions, has meant that it no longer enthuses the middle class its core.

Which means that this election may see resurgence of third front. If that is the case I bet my money on Sharad Pawar or Mayawati* mostly because he is pro growth with a positive outlook. Among the two, my preference is Sharad Pawar, but even more crucial is to ensure that left is no where no power. Which means that BJP should give outside support, if thats what it takes. For BJP the advantage will be it will be able to regroup without having to contend with adverse media propaganda, or blatant attempt by left to abuse the power against it.

* What about Purachi Thailavi? Could she be the wild card ? Who knows !

PS. I am still waiting for the answers.