Scenarios

Here are scenarios for BJP from most favorable to least favorable.

1. Congress leads a weak and unpopular government from outside. BJP regroups under a new and nimble leadership, forms govt after 2011 mid-term elections.

2. Congress props a weak and unpopular Third Front govt from outside. BJP regroups under a new and nimble leadership, forms govt after 2011 mid-term elections. Congress withers away.

3. BJP props a weak but tolerably competent Third Front govt led by someone like Sharad Pawar from outside,  regroups under a new and nimble leadership, forms govt after 2011 mid-term elections.

4. BJP props a weak and unpopular Third Front govt from outside, gets blame for antics of Behenji and Didi,  is forced to sit in opposition after 2011 mid-term elections.

5. BJP leads a weak and unpopular govt from outside, gets blame for antics of Behenji and Didi,   sinks after 2011 mid-term elections.

6. Congress leads a stable govt and  manages to avoid unpopularity by virtue of having secular liberal establishment at its side. BJP makes selling gau mutra soda  its top priority. Dynasty rule is restored.

For the long haul

(This post is mostly a collation of comments I left on Swapan Dasgupta's blog. That's right in case you were not aware SwanpanDa has a blog where he blogs and, get this, interacts with the commentators. So, go ahead, waste your time )

Now that elections are over, and everyone is waiting for results, I can write down my thoughts. This time, I didn't really follow either campaigning or analysis of the electoral fortunes, mostly because of prospects of BJP.

Whatever the results, the possibility of  BJP forming a stable and credible government is very remote.
This is bad news, after being in wilderness for five years BJP has more or less atrophied, and there is good possibility that further distance from power as well as constant onslaught by secular media may cause it to wither to margins of Indian politics from its present preeminent status.

If BJP wishes to avoid such an outcome it is imperative that it takes stock of its situation and chalk a plan aimed towards consolidating its presently precarious position as main pole and agenda setter of Indian politics.

It can not do this if it is burdened with responsibility of running a weak government, or if it is under incessant focus of hostile secular liberal media*. It can do with a bit of benign obscurity, for that it must ensure formation of a weak non - Congress government supported from outside either by direct* support from Congress or by indirect* support from BJP.

Anyway consolidation means thinking for long term. This implies that Shri Advani must retire from active politics as should the senior leadership contenting themselves with advisory role. Second a process for succession  which will ensure that BJP leaders concentrate on fighting with opposition and not among themselves. Most important however, BJP must present itself as a serious political poverty which has the policies to ensure security and prosperity for India, and the stamina necessary to implement them.

* There is added disadvantage leading or directly propping a weak government will result in further erosion of BJP's popularity, therefore if it must support the government to keep Congress out of power it must be indirect through absentation.