Change of stance

I posted this originally as a comment on Swapan Da's blog, but thought it deserved a more detailed examination. But first the comment.

To continue from where I left, while the idea of catharsis may sound seductive, politically, I believe, it is counter productive. A better strategy will be to focus on the issues.

One such ready-made issue is the attempt by center to insulate bureaucracy from political responsibility. BJP leadership is supporting it for rewarding its favorite babus. It should oppose it.

Now this issue may not fetch anything electorally. Indian voters simply do not care about federalism. However this issue helps in positioning, BJP can claim it stands for Strong center and strong states as opposed to Congress which stands for Strong center and weak states and regional parties which stand for weak center and strong states. This kind of positioning helps in reinventing BJP from a saffron flavored Congress that it is perceived today and what's much more important help in attracting allies.

Now coming to broader point, since the defeat in elections, and in a way even prior to that, the primary concern of BJP supporters has been to search for a leader who can lead BJP to victory.

This, in my view, is a wrong approach. The specific reason is at present none of BJP leaders has the popularity to secure parliamentary majority or even significant electoral advantage. Among a section there was palpable excitement for Narendra Modi as prospective leader. However as the election proved he has hardly any influence outside Gujarat. Now people may argue that this may change, and Modi, or some other leader, may emerge before 2014. This is possible, yet highly unlikely. For I believe the era of charismatic leaders with pan Indian influence has passed.

The reason for this is that Indian polity has changed. Individuals, more precisely members of Nehru - Gandhi dynasty, commanded a pan Indian influence when memory of freedom struggle, more or less a pan Indian phenomenon, was recent. The dynasty was main beneficiary of the romance and promise of the independence. However as the political scene progress through time, and the expectations were belied,  the influence of romance and as a consequence popular appeal of dynasty waned.

Gradually even though the dynasty remained in charge, the political landscape shifted to a. Addressing people's expectations and even more importantly b. Articulating their aspirations. Even then the change was not apparent immediately because the emerging interest groups sought protection under the shadow of behemoth of dynasty at national level. On state level however regional parties emerged ensuing decades of bitter confrontation with Congress. In short term dynasty was able to control the regional parties. However eventually dynasty lost its influence resulting in present equilibrium where national politics resembles a confederacy of regional interests.

Now I believe that in long term this arrangement is against integrity and unity of India, however this arrangement is stable for the time being and hence will persist. Also I don't think reverting to the earlier model of patron-client relation is the solution.

This arrangement raises political challenge for a national party in short term as well as long term. Short term challenge exists because it can not rely on a single leader or a single direct message. This can be resolved by raising issues and proposing policy proposals which address the specific interest substantiavely and exhaustively. Long term challenge is ensuring unity and Integrity of India. This can be addressed at political level by pro-actively supporting a federalist approach, and at cultural level by locating the diverse traditions and aspirations of various regions within broader existence of Indic civilization and its growth.

This implies a shift from messianic emphasis on personalities to emphasis on the issues, and more importantly innovation as well as articulation.

Commentariacy

Kind of busy to write any new post, hence re-posting comments made on Swapan Da's blog,

On Junking ugly Hindu image

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Swapan Da, 

I am a bit puzzled so I hope you will help me here.

1. You said that H word (modified to ugly H word in this post) is a hindrance to pursuance of power. Hence

2. You suggested that 

a. BJP drop H word and 

b. BJP adapt programs for reforms and good governance.

Keeping the tenability of the premise aside for the moment, on what basis do you think reforms or governance will be such a vote getter. If the aim is to get votes whats wrong with good old bribes like free color TVs or free Gold rings or even reservations after all they have worked.

and

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On second thoughts I have a feeling that centre right clique has really no idea how to go about this junking Hindutva (ugly or otherwise). Now BJP could do without enthusiasm of certain power peddlers regarding promoting bigotry of Varun Gandhi as ideological hallmark of cultural nationalism and should disassociate itself with such bigotry or thuggery. However secular liberal establishment and its propaganda arm, which is most of ELM, will persist in associating BJP and whoever professes to cultural nationalism with such sociopaths even if it protests to the contrary. In fact such pronouncement of disassociation and the ensuing pandemonium will just add to the secular media grist mill. 

In my opinion the only effective to distance (and distance we must) from the nuts is by action. Come V Day or whatever tawdry western imitation there is bound to be vandalism by lumpen Hindutva, BJP government must ensure that safety of property whether private or public and anyone attempting to vandalize them are brought to the justice preferable in full media glare.

On internecine war in BJP

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Many commentators are blaming Arun Jaitley for loss. While I am sure some share of blame must go to Arun Jaitley, the reasons for defeat go much beyond follies and foilbles of individuals (even Rajnath Singh) and are due to structural inadequacies not just in BJP but also Indian polity, foremost of which is the tendency to circle the wagons, I hold no brief for Mr Kulkarni but finding fault with him for publishig in Tehelka. Which is why I find this debate over Hindutva disappointing, and I speak as someone who supported booting Varun Gandhi out before elections. Whatever the merits or demerits of Hindutva, it was secondary if hardly any cause. The primary cause is CCC or chronic credibility crisis.

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Swapan Da,

I have long (and by long I mean post 2004 debacle) wondered about the civil war (or catharsis) in BJP and somehow I am less sanguine about its effect. 

While you are correct that instinctive avoidance from any substantial debate and instead relying on behind the doorschintans is the reason for the sorry state that BJP finds itself in. However the central leadership is intellectually bankrupt and I can find no evidence that it is capable of critical analysis and self interospection. I am afraid that this latest episode like the previous ones i.e. cover up. Which is why I don't think that passing the buck is the best strategy for failure. I will prefer that the things are allowed to cool down, and the adults focus on the reasons voters didn't vote for BJP in Lok Sabha while they have voted for BJP in state elections and how to rectify them.

Related to that I think Modi is a Non Starter, his nomination will incur the full wrath of secular right establishment and the prospective allies will run away like frightened horses. Sushma Swaraj is a better option. Of course this is coming from a guy who supported Arun Shourie for 2009

By the way I may sound rude but rare exceptions (BJP Supporter Oldtimes etc)apart the level of debate here is pretty disappointing though hardly unexpected

On soporific banality of Sudheendra Kulkarni

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Totally off the topic but I can't stand Sudheendra Kulkarni. Not in the sense of attitude or behaviour but he provides no insight, and there is not a reason to suspect that he possesses any capacity for critical thinking, he is full of superficial rhetoric and platitudes, and his writing is guided more by what is considered cool by the cocktail circuit. He is even more unbearable than Tarun Vijay.

Positioning Hindutva

I would write in detail on "Secularism vs Hindutva" later, meanwhile reposting my comment on Swapan Da's post .

I believe what Oldtimer wrote by Oldtimer is certainly one of the the most articulate and coherent rebuttal not only of the article as well as the clique of centre- right.

I will just like to add a bit of my thoughts on this. I believe the first point (i.e. of Hindu identity) is what many secularists advocate discarding in favor of a vague adherence to secularism. This would be a mistake.

Even though both Hindutva and Secularism are vague terms, to me the essential argument behind Hindutva is that Hinduism* forms the core of Indian identity and which is why it must be treated uniquely of all the other religions as far as civilizational perspective is concerned.

I would note here that civilization is different from state. Further I do not advocate any discrimination among citizens on basis of religion, only an imperative to recognize distinction between different traditions (how to apply this recognition in matters not abstract is admittedly not an easy task).

Secularism, on the other hand, shorn of all flowery platitude and saccharine rhetoric is a refusal to recognize Hinduism ** as the mainstay of Indic civilization, which leads first to disavowal of our history and civilization and ultimately de-recognition of group identity and tradition as the prime mover behind social instincts and responses.

This is as impoverishing and emasculating of society spiritually, intellectually and morally, as other Utopian ideologies such as Islam, Christianity, Marxism and Objectivism (or even its lesser cousin libertarianism).

* Perhaps using Dharmic tradition instead of Hinduism would be less contentious and more palatable, however I use Hinduism because a. it is the most prevalent tradition at present (and to a lesser extent historically) b. Once the other traditions detach themselves from Hinduism they lose their vigour and enlightenment (The unpleasant business in Vienna being a recent example)

Scenarios

Here are scenarios for BJP from most favorable to least favorable.

1. Congress leads a weak and unpopular government from outside. BJP regroups under a new and nimble leadership, forms govt after 2011 mid-term elections.

2. Congress props a weak and unpopular Third Front govt from outside. BJP regroups under a new and nimble leadership, forms govt after 2011 mid-term elections. Congress withers away.

3. BJP props a weak but tolerably competent Third Front govt led by someone like Sharad Pawar from outside,  regroups under a new and nimble leadership, forms govt after 2011 mid-term elections.

4. BJP props a weak and unpopular Third Front govt from outside, gets blame for antics of Behenji and Didi,  is forced to sit in opposition after 2011 mid-term elections.

5. BJP leads a weak and unpopular govt from outside, gets blame for antics of Behenji and Didi,   sinks after 2011 mid-term elections.

6. Congress leads a stable govt and  manages to avoid unpopularity by virtue of having secular liberal establishment at its side. BJP makes selling gau mutra soda  its top priority. Dynasty rule is restored.

Hitting the mattresses*

Sort of continuing from the previous post, if BJP is serious about survival much less its consolidation, it must put in place mechanism to neutralize secular liberal media which is hostile to agenda of cultural nationalism. This mechanism will enable dissemination of information and opinions which at present are either suppressed or distorted by secular liberal media.

One way is to construct this mechanism is to establish a news channel on the lines of Fox lines, this is preferred by many BJP supporters, and I am behind this in theory. In practice however, I am not convinced it is that easy, such an effort requires financial backing and more importantly a workforce of professional journalists, now it is possible to find financial backing, however it is not clear whether there will be sufficient journalists ready to switch over to a channel which is overtly sympathetic to BJP, then there is intra-party bickering that SwapanDa alludes to in one of his posts . I am of opinion that the most feasible to achieve this goal is to recruit nationalist minded industrialist who have the financial muscle as well as some modicum of professional competency.

Meanwhile there is one other way to achieve our goal, that strategy can be summarized as, "Think local".
If is my observation that papers in Indian languages are more amenable to nationalist politics compared to more cosmopolitan ELM, assuming this is true for other parts of India, BJP must consolidate its position with the local papers, especially considering they have a wider reach compared to ELM.

This can be extended to local cable channels who provide better coverage of local issues. BJP can make inroads with this medium.

Another unexplored medium is FM, at present FM market is dominated by big players and legally barred from political content. This prohibition must go and BJP must formulate the regulations to allow local players to enter and compete the market. This is another venue where BJP can make inroads.

* Mafia slang .

For the long haul

(This post is mostly a collation of comments I left on Swapan Dasgupta's blog. That's right in case you were not aware SwanpanDa has a blog where he blogs and, get this, interacts with the commentators. So, go ahead, waste your time )

Now that elections are over, and everyone is waiting for results, I can write down my thoughts. This time, I didn't really follow either campaigning or analysis of the electoral fortunes, mostly because of prospects of BJP.

Whatever the results, the possibility of  BJP forming a stable and credible government is very remote.
This is bad news, after being in wilderness for five years BJP has more or less atrophied, and there is good possibility that further distance from power as well as constant onslaught by secular media may cause it to wither to margins of Indian politics from its present preeminent status.

If BJP wishes to avoid such an outcome it is imperative that it takes stock of its situation and chalk a plan aimed towards consolidating its presently precarious position as main pole and agenda setter of Indian politics.

It can not do this if it is burdened with responsibility of running a weak government, or if it is under incessant focus of hostile secular liberal media*. It can do with a bit of benign obscurity, for that it must ensure formation of a weak non - Congress government supported from outside either by direct* support from Congress or by indirect* support from BJP.

Anyway consolidation means thinking for long term. This implies that Shri Advani must retire from active politics as should the senior leadership contenting themselves with advisory role. Second a process for succession  which will ensure that BJP leaders concentrate on fighting with opposition and not among themselves. Most important however, BJP must present itself as a serious political poverty which has the policies to ensure security and prosperity for India, and the stamina necessary to implement them.

* There is added disadvantage leading or directly propping a weak government will result in further erosion of BJP's popularity, therefore if it must support the government to keep Congress out of power it must be indirect through absentation.