Tit for tat

Related Posts [1],[2],[3]

Let me reiterate my assumptions first

1) In some cases not only “an eye for eye” is justified, it is the only course left.

2) If by sacrificing the life of 10 Americans or 10 Israelis or 10 Pakistanis, I can save life of 10 Indians and neutralize any threat to India; to me it will be a fair deal.I may not find pleasure in it, but still I will do it.*

3) To expect that peace process will somehow convince the ruling clique of Pakistan to shun terrorism against India or goad the awam of land of pure is absurd, illogical and in light of all evidences to contrary seriously (as in life threatening) delusional. And this stands irrespective of the fact that across the border same food is eaten, or same stupid soaps are watched.

If the above assumptions are repulsive to you, skip the rest of post.

So one may ask, if peace process doesn’t work what is going to work?
Answer is pain, stick, in other words punitive action.

Now sticks come in all sizes, what kind of stick should India use?

Consider the first, threat of retaliation.
Problem with this is threat in absence of credible ability and demonstrable willingness has exponentially diminishing return. [The poet had nailed it]
This has already happened, I have a suspicion that when the enlightened dictator needs a good laugh he listens to recordings of Manmohan Singh alternatively threatening to walk out from table (imagine the horror) and in the next sentence groveling for peace.

Second is Hot pursuit or Cold start. I have trouble with this approach.

First people assume that rational position of Pakistan will be not to escalate it into full fledged war.Problem with this is that according to me, the only rational position for Pakistan is to escalate it (or maintain a demonstrable readiness) into full fledged war.

Reason? The incursion of Indian Army into Pakistan in order to dismantle terrorist infrastructure can not be a one time event, it has to be a prolonged and continuous process. Now Pakistan is at best suspicious and at worst mortified about threat to its existence from India.
Further, by allowing Indian Army to cross the border, a precedence would be established whereby India can enter into POK in order to capture terrorist, which very much defeats the purpose of Pakistan of supporting terrorists.

Therefore relaxing and allowing incursion by Indian army even for one time inside Pakistan is one time too many. Therefore the Pakistan can not afford it.

There is another point, establishing terror infrastructure is unlike building, for example nuclear installation (if the instructions are in Mandarin, even more so). Basically what one needs is lots of ammo and a hell lot of crazy guys, rest is mostly detail. Sadly for us, our neighbor is not lacking in either of these. Therefore even if assumed that Indian army is able to destroy terrorist camps in POK, it will not be a very difficult to reestablish those, this time in all likelihood in Punjab or NWFP, where Indian Army can not enter without launching a full scale war.

Ofcourse it is highly doubtful that world will even agree to the possibility of Indian incursion into Pakistani territory.

To summarize, beyond a point military response to terrorism is not the best response in the situation. Also strategy wise I am not sure how sensible it is to start a high intensity operation in response to what in essence is low intensity warfare.

To me the most sensible option before India is to reply in kind, that is inflict the pain in such a way that Pakistani state is convinced or forced by the common public to stop warfare against India. If low intensity sabotage is to be carried inside Pakistan, then it is crucial that it should not be directly carried out by India.

Basically there are two approaches. One is to incite different extremist religious factions inside Pakistan against each other. Another is to encourage secessionist movements inside Pakistan. The basic idea is to have any impact violence can not be random.


* I am in general pro US and pro Israel, the purpose of the example was just to emphasize extent I am willing to go to secure India and her citizens.