Time For Politiks
#1. How much truth in statement that after Kalaignar DMK is history ? Stalin doesn't excite me, is he able to excite local ?
Addendum: What about Vaiko ? I believe he is going to benefit most from any future internecine war in DMK, or will it be PMK again who gets to feast on the carcass ?
#2. What are chances of Captain emerging as serious contender ? I think victory of AIADMK led coalition and electoral success of PMK in face of appeal by Thalaivar should put vote appeal of Tamizh film stars in perspective. Even then DMDK won 10% of popular vote which is more than PMK *. I believe his appeal is in south TamizhNadu near Madurai, which traditionally has been a stronghold of AIADMK.
#3. Is PMK a vanilla casteist party or a Dravida casteist party? Can its election symbol (succulent mango) be declared vulgar and corrupting Indian youth ?
#4. Is there any possibility of Brahmin-Adi Dravida alliance, something like what happened in UP ?
#4B. If the answer to previous question is yes, then considering the fact the caste polarization of TamizhNadu occurred much before U.P., why hasn't this happened already? Does it have something to do with orthodoxy ** of Tamizh Brahmins, compared to those belonging to Gangetic Belt ?
#5. What should be the correct way that BJP, still having its base on the other side of vindhaya, to go about increasing its reach ? Anyone who can take place of Rangarajan Kumaramangalam ?
Any chance Dayanidhi Maran may go national after the power struggle in DMK breaks out ?
* However to put things in perspective, PMK did not contest all the seats, so it is perhaps incorrect to compare the two. For details go here.
** My perception. May be incorrect, however I doubt that.
11 comments:
Hi Gaurav
Great set of questions that you have framed to understand the TN Political landscape
I promise to respond to each of your question very shortly
Prasanna
Will look forward to your post
Thank you
Gaurav,
you have a rare understanding about tamil polity for someone hailing from the north of vindyas.
As someone who has tried to make sense of tamil politics,all i can say is that only one thing distinguishes it from the rest of india.It is the deification of tamil language and their blind stance on reservation.There is no other difference.
After karu,there will be jockeying,fighting for the spoils of karu's legacy.
The ADMK has progressively weakened in the pandya land.Sarath Kumar has started a party for nadars.Vijaykanth,a naidu,has started his own party.They will eat into the ADMK vote bank.
The PMK will be continue to hold sway in north TN.The vanniyars are the single largest caste in TN,found in large swathes from the northern districts,salem,villupuram,cuddalore,perambalur upto the chola land in mayavaram.
The mudaliars and naidus have traditionally had no love lost for this numerically large community challenging their dominance.
But ramadoss is trying to broadbase his support on the basis of tamil nationalism.This will definitely have an impact after the death of karu,which will mean a terminal decline of DMK.The tamil nationalists might gather around PMK or the congress.The Congress would be a better option.The PMK itself might merge into the congress.The forerunner of the PMK,the Workers and Toilers party had merged in the congress in the 50s.Afterall,the tamils are moderate and pragmatic.If reservation is accepted in IITs,all their demands would have been accepted.
There is a saying in tamil politics (velliyil kadar,ulle karuppu,ie ghadar outside,black(DK)inside).The tamil nationalist movement is rooted in the soil of TN)Congress might become strong by coopting tamil nationalism.
xyz,
Thanks for info.
Any comments about the future of TN politics and whether BJP has a chance
There are two blind spots in the tamil vision.reservation and tamil language.
If reservation is implemented in iits,all tamil demands would have been met.There is no reason why BJP cannot come.
TN has no borders with a hindi speaking state.So that is not a problem.But if BJP comes to power in karnataka and consolidates its position there,then it is curtains for BJP in TN.
I believe the Sugriva-Hanuman,ravana-vibhishana`relationships tell us a`lot about our history.
xyz,
Thanks for the info. I am surprised that BJP if gains in Karnataka will lose in TN. I thought that politics in TN was mainly Anti-Hindi (Anti- North India), I was aware that there exists tension between Karnataka and TN, but I thought it was due to Cauvery.
One more question for you, what are the chances that PMK will falter ?
I am not a soothsayer,but will try to explain.
Nobody can deny that there exists a savarna-avarna chasm in our society.
You have given a possible reason for this chasm.When an elite loses touch with reality or there is a change in the cultural mores,which becomes inevitable,the elite becomes rigid emphasising rituals.
It could also be due to the mismatch between the elite and the masses.
Something happened in the dim past which created this chasm.
Perhaps that is why something patently unjust as reservations cause us so much pain.
But today we live in a democratic age,where there are enormous opportunities.Yet numerically large groups insist on taking a myopic view.
Like the khalistanis,dravidians,paswans,to a lesser extent the obc politics of north india.
The obc politics is already faltering.In UP,obc politics cannot have the virulence of identity politics.Bihar is different having been the home of heterodox religions,yet the language is hindi.
Sikhism,as we know now,is a creation of the british.
But the linguistic identity of tamils is not a creation of the british.Tamil has an independent literary tradition.Though in philosophy and caste system,tamils are not different from other indians.
The dravidians nurse an injury.When the British came,the brahmanas left them far behind,because of the speed with which the brahmanas took to english and their identification with india.
This resentment existed to a lesser extent in AP,kerala and karnataka but it was marked in TN.I list some reasons for that.
1)In kerala,the nambudiries cohabited with nair women.This produced a deep schism between nairs and ezhavas.Many nairs and nambudiries also converted to christianity.Kerala has a large nonhindu population.
2)The telugu dravidas(kammas of Telugu desam) were also antibrahminical.Infact,even today,the DMK has a disproportionately large telugu leadership.One of the Namas in Vishnu Sahasranama is "Chanura Andhra Nishudanah".Sri Krishna slayed Chanura.This is in a way irrelevant.Because telugu is profoundly influenced by sanskrit and the aksharas and pronounciation of sanskrit is found in telugu as in kannada and malayalam.Also telugus are numerically the largest community in south and are found in large numbers both in TN and karnataka.BJP has no foothold in andhra.Maybe,they can register a presence in telengana.
3)The BJP is nonexistent in TN,except in certain areas having a significant muslim population.
4)A"Thani thamizh"(pure tamil)iyakkam-movement has been underway,for more than 100 years, to cleanse tamil of sanskrit words,pronunciations.
5)Karnataka is markedly different.Only 60% of Karnataka speaks kannada.(karnataka shares this aspect with assam).It is only state where BJP has a strong presence.In Dakshina and Uttara kanara(Brahmins are a strong force,ravikiran and nitin come from here.Tulu has no script,there is nothing remotely like DMK here or even JD(S).In north karnataka,BJP is strong with a substantial base among lingayats,who dislike mysore domination.The kodavas of coorg do not like JD(S).
Historically from Hanuman to Aihole(chalukyas-cradle of temple architecture in the south,rashtrakutas(the foundation of kannada-marathi culture),to sringeri,melkote(where ramanuja took refuge) to vijayanagar to prasanna,chandra,dravid,srinath,kumble the kannadiga almost selfless,persevering type has been the bulwark of our dharma in the south.
I am not for a minute denying the strength of our dharma in other states,but we are talking of political alignment with Hindu nationalist forces.By temperament,i dont care much for politics,but when pseudo secular,anti hindu,"backward" politics is derailing our society,karnataka is different.Despite the emergence of kannada chauvinism,karnataka is more liberal and JD(S) is far better than the DMK.Kannadigas in south karnataka feel they are being made scapegoats.If JD(S) and BJP tieup continues,the kannadigas will rally around hindu nationalism.This can produce the opposite reaction in TN.
I sometimes hope against hope,that the DMK,PMK,congress types(Jayanthi natarajan,sudarshana nacchiappan,mani shankar thug) will realise that TN has more in common with the rest of the nation,than the differences.
Ofcourse,nothing will make us all more happy,than TN and karnataka being aligned with one another.
The vanniyars are the single largest community in TN.Inspite of the tall claims of social justice,they are not major players in education,govt jobs(which is very important in the present scheme of things for large sections) or business.Small,medium retailing ,distribution,agri-businesses are flourishing in TN.Vanniyars are marginal players.When the social justice plank is based on proportionate disribution ,and the vanniyars have been "denied" and the vanniyars have appropriated the tamil nationalist mantle,how will they falter?
In a head count democracy,they have to be coopted by the congress or someone else.The DMK cannot coopt them in the long run,because the PMK is the no 1 threat to DMK.The PMK is far too rabid for the tastes of ADMK or BJP.Or the BJP can ally with DMK(nothing is impossible,in a way this would be constructive,the fusion of hindu and dravidian nationalism,but DMK is nothing without karu) to marginalise the PMK.If the hindu and the dravidian -hindu streams merge(a natural course),the vanniyars will become a plain vannila party without any supporting ideology.
One cannot just wish away the PMK.
#1. How much truth in statement that after Kalaignar DMK is history ? Stalin doesn't excite me, is he able to excite local ?
Ans: Stalin's appeal is limited atleast amongst the folks in Chennai - in the hinterland he may have a bit more of an appeal - however, the fact that he and his brother, azhagiri, have split tamland into north and south will definitely affect his ability to consolidate position and make a claim as leader. Post Karu, I see DMK to be split into a couple of parties atleast - thing with Karu is, unlike the gandhis he has not dealt with his succession plans clearly and there is no single person who can motivate DMK cadre to follow them - we have Stalin, Azhagiri, the Maran brothers and of course, Kanimozhi (who doesnt exactly have any mass backing right now, but who might be the michael corleone like dark horse). The godfather comparison is apt - stalin is more like sonny corleone (all action and bluster), azhagiri has his base down south but nothing much in north, Kanimozhi has her karu like literary characteristics and the fact that she literally came out of the blue to take the RS post. and TN does have a thing for strong women leaders in the recent past (AMMA..)
Addendum: What about Vaiko ? I believe he is going to benefit most from any future internecine war in DMK, or will it be PMK again who gets to feast on the carcass ?
Ans: Dont think vaiko will have much of a pull - PMK is strong, but again is identified too much along the lines of caste to actually be able to break out of the vanniyar dominated areas - it will be a key partner in any coalition but unlikely to be someone who can feast on the DMK decline post Karu.
#2. What are chances of Captain emerging as serious contender ? I think victory of AIADMK led coalition and electoral success of PMK in face of appeal by Thalaivar should put vote appeal of Tamizh film stars in perspective. Even then DMDK won 10% of popular vote which is more than PMK *. I believe his appeal is in south TamizhNadu near Madurai, which traditionally has been a stronghold of AIADMK.
Ans: feel that captain and sarath kumar, etc will be fringe forces, capable of upsetting party equations in a few constituencies but otherwise largely incapable of being able to affect the larger parties. Thing with thalaivar's call of arms the second time against ADMK and PMK was more to do with a personal wrong and not like the first time around when his call was responded to overwhelming because the voters felt the same way. He still is a force to reckon with in TN but i doubt if he can really wreck someone's chances.
#3. Is PMK a vanilla casteist party or a Dravida casteist party? Can its election symbol (succulent mango) be declared vulgar and corrupting Indian youth ?
Ans: I think it is a vanniyar party - atleast i identify it as such - and so far, i dont think they have been able to sway anything beyond the vanniyar areas (unlike say the BSP which is more a vanilla casteist party). As for its electoral symbol, i mean whats wrong with a succulent mango :D :P..
#4. Is there any possibility of Brahmin-Adi Dravida alliance, something like what happened in UP ?
Ans: Highly unlikely, thanks to the dravidian parties heavy focus on anti brahminism, there is unlikely to be a mix and match.. the closest i see to a brahmin-dravida alliance is if amma led ADMK does something with PMK (which seems unlikely).
#4B. If the answer to previous question is yes, then considering the fact the caste polarization of TamizhNadu occurred much before U.P., why hasn't this happened already? Does it have something to do with orthodoxy ** of Tamizh Brahmins, compared to those belonging to Gangetic Belt ?
Ans; My answer is no, and I think unlike the gangetic plain where the brahmins had their power centres, the brahmins in TN are not a force to reckon with in any political sphere.. in most areas, the so called lower castes outnumber then 90:10 or worse..
#5. What should be the correct way that BJP, still having its base on the other side of vindhaya, to go about increasing its reach ? Anyone who can take place of Rangarajan Kumaramangalam ?
Any chance Dayanidhi Maran may go national after the power struggle in DMK breaks out ?
Ans: TN voters have always voted on anti incumbency and some weird issues such as tamil language and non hindi imposition - religion if at all has been on the fringes - in a severely caste based politics BJP's trump card of religion becomes irrelevant and that makes it difficult for it to establish a foothold. I would guess it was this and confused leadership which has led to BJP being reduced to a mockery in UP (which is now a casteist as TN is in politics).
to summarise: think that DMK will split post Karu as Stalin and Azhagiri try to establish their power centres, I would guess that someone like kanimozhi would have to be gel to get the party back together. The maran brothers have lost goodwill and never had a mass base to actually be able to command control in TN. Post Karu, their power will decline further as neither stalin nor azhagiri will yield an inch. BJP will find it difficult to enter TN, unless it can find a casteist leader to galvanise a particular caste. Unlikely that a brahmin-adi dravida link up will happen given the political minority status of the brahmins. Film stars will have limited appeal and ability to affect the big parties.
SL,
Thanks for detailed response. Just minor question. Aren't Adi-Dravida castes similar to Dalit and Dravida castes actually middle castes. When I spoke of alliance what I meant was electoral muscle of Adi Dravidas and intellectual heft by Tamizah Brahmins against electoral hegemony of middle castes, similar to what has happened in UP.
Also while I do not claim to be expert on TN, conditions in UP and TN are very different. In UP there is conventional politics of castes but nothing like anti- Brahmin Dravida movement
Hi Gaurav
Those who can be 'categorised 'as Intellectual Brahmins in Tamil Nadu are quite a dangerous species .As survival strategy (and to protect their commercial interests ) they are either self-professed Marxists or torch bearers of specious Dravidian ideology.(N.Ram/Kamal Hassan/Suhashini /Gnani etc)
As far as the aam admi Brahmin is concerned-emasculated under the most virulent atttck from Dravidian propaganda machinery they have long since withdrawn in to a cocoon.They still cling to the meaningless, ritualistic brahamanical Hinduism .It suprises me no end how they still identify themselves so closely with irrelevant institutions like Kanchi Mutt .
Electorally they are virtually inconsequential except probably n Mylapore assembly in Chennai.The current demographics i suspect would be less than 3% from the heady days of more than 10% in the beginning of the century
The stranglehold of the middle caste is more or less complete on all aspects of life in Tamil Nadu.Dravidian movement has adroitly expoited the domination of brahmins is clearical jobsto establish tyraany of middle castes .
Prasanna,
This means TN is lost to Dravidaa movement for ever. What a shame.
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